A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."